Our analysis suggests that tariff measures are already exerting measurable upward pressure on consumer prices. The rise in prices beginning in early 2025 coincides closely with tariff developments, and our model-based regressions confirm that these effects are statistically and economically significant.
At the same time, the pass-through remains partial; only a portion of the model-predicted effect has materialized so far. This could reflect delays in price adjustments, competitive pressure limiting firms’ ability to raise prices, or expectations that the tariffs may prove temporary.
Automation affects workers in different ways. In some cases, technology acts as a complement to human labor, and in other cases as a substitute for human labor. Over the long run, technological advance creates new goods and services, raises national income, and increases the demand for labor throughout the economy. However, it is important to note that these changes can create winners and losers—some workers will lack the skills to transition to new jobs.
As my friend Kasey put it in a recent conversation, growth is a fire. If you build a nice, sustainable fire, it’ll keep you warm, cook food and sustain life. And if the only thing you care about is how big your fire is, then it’ll set fire to everything around it, and the more you throw into it, the more it’ll burn. Eventually, you’ll have nothing left, but if you desperately desire that fire, you will constantly have to find new things to burn at any cost.
NVIDIA’s earnings are, effectively, the US stock market’s confidence, and everything rides on five companies — and if we’re honest, really four companies — buying GPUs for generative AI services or to train generative AI models. Worse still, these services, while losing these companies massive amounts of money, don’t produce much revenue, meaning that the AI trade is not driving any real, meaningful revenue growth.
We’re three years in, and generative AI’s highest-grossing companies — outside OpenAI ($10 billion annualized as of early June) and Anthropic ($4 billion annualized as of July), and both lose billions a year after revenue — have three major problems:
The careful, coded corporate language executives once used in describing staff cuts is giving way to blunt boasts about ever-shrinking workforces. Gone are the days when trimming head count signaled retrenchment or trouble. Bosses are showing off to Wall Street that they are embracing artificial intelligence and serious about becoming lean. After all, it is no easy feat to cut head count for 20 consecutive quarters, an accomplishment Wells Fargo’s chief executive officer touted this month.
These patterns are particularly striking in technology sectors, where workers might expect AI to augment rather than to replace their roles. Software developers, data analysts and other tech professionals are finding that AI tools can indeed accelerate certain tasks, but potentially at the cost of overall employment demand.
Our results suggest we may be witnessing the early stages of AI-driven job displacement. Unlike previous technological revolutions that primarily affected manufacturing or routine clerical work, generative AI can target cognitive tasks performed by knowledge workers—traditionally among the most secure employment categories.
This evolution is consistent with the country’s strategic push to move beyond its role as a passive technology recipient and become an active licensor of frontier technologies. This is evident in sectors such as artificial intelligence, green technology and advanced manufacturing, where China’s firms are becoming increasingly competitive and, in some cases, globally dominant.
pretty interesting to see the charts the indicate that % of GDP china is growing both in its royalties and exported IP.
In its latest labor market report, the New York Federal Reserve found that recent CS grads are dealing with a whopping 6.1 precent unemployment rate. Those who majored in computer engineering — which is similar, if not more specialized — are faring even worse, with 7.5 percent of recent graduates remaining jobless.
.I mean, best in class compensation, strong work life balance and prestige. Hundreds of thousands of students flocked to CS degrees as a no-brainer career.
But there’s no fun anymore. The stores just feel really kind of dingy, unkempt, with stuff locked behind doors.
Not much of a shopper, but Target really felt like a fun place to shop with great deals and clean stores. The answer seems so obvious to me, hire. more. people. Check outs and returns routinely take 20-30 min, the self checkout lanes are so slow and the lines long. My frequent impulse buys of Legos or Switch Games for the kids are locked up, not even able to browse.
The share of people 30 days delinquent on their credit card debt has trended upward since the first half of 2021, and that trend was widespread among all four geographies we examined.
Lookinga the included graphs it seems since 2023 delinquency has gone from up almost 10% points (log scale). Somethings gotta give.
Quote Citation: Juan M. Sánchez , Masataka Mori, “The Broad, Continuing Rise in Delinquent U.S. Credit Card Debt Revisited”, May 09, 2025, https://www.
